College Football · ATS Tracker
UCLA Bruins leads the Power 4 at +18.0 points a game against the spread; Washington Huskies trails at -11.7. Every FBS team's cover margin, and why the market has probably caught up already.
Which college football teams are beating the spread, and which ones keep letting bettors down? This tracker ranks every FBS team by its average margin against the spread (ATS) through Week 5: how many points a game it has finished ahead of, or behind, the closing line. A 7-point favorite that wins by 10 is +3. A 7-point underdog that loses by 3 is +4. Positive means the market has been underrating the team so far; negative means overrating it.
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA Bruins | Big Ten | +18.0 | 4-0 | @ Oregon Ducks (+11.5) |
| 2 | Northwestern Wildcats | Big Ten | +17.8 | 4-0 | vs Ball State Cardinals (-34.5) |
| 3 | Alabama Crimson Tide | SEC | +13.9 | 4-1 | vs Georgia Bulldogs (+2.5) |
| 4 | Utah Utes | Big 12 | +11.5 | 4-0 | vs Kansas Jayhawks |
| 5 | Duke Blue Devils | ACC | +11.1 | 4-0 | @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
| 6 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | ACC | +11.1 | 3-2 | @ NC State Wolfpack (-2.5) |
| 7 | Baylor Bears | Big 12 | +9.3 | 4-1 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 8 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | Big Ten | +8.8 | 4-1 | vs Indiana Hoosiers (+9.5) |
| 9 | Miami Hurricanes | ACC | +7.8 | 4-1 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 10 | Georgia Bulldogs | SEC | +7.7 | 4-1 | @ Alabama Crimson Tide (-2.5) |
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Huskies | Big Ten | -11.7 | 1-4 | vs Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) |
| 2 | Stanford Cardinal | ACC | -11.4 | 2-3 | @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+36.5) |
| 3 | California Golden Bears | ACC | -9.2 | 1-4 | vs Virginia Tech Hokies |
| 4 | Colorado Buffaloes | Big 12 | -8.1 | 1-4 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 5 | Oklahoma Sooners | SEC | -8.0 | 1-3 | vs Texas Longhorns (+9.5) |
| 6 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | ACC | -7.9 | 0-4 | vs Duke Blue Devils |
| 7 | Arkansas Razorbacks | SEC | -7.8 | 1-4 | vs Tennessee Volunteers |
| 8 | Arizona State Sun Devils | Big 12 | -7.8 | 2-2 | vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors |
| 9 | USC Trojans | Big Ten | -7.2 | 1-5 | @ Penn State Nittany Lions (-2.5) |
| 10 | Maryland Terrapins | Big Ten | -7.1 | 2-3 | @ Ohio State Buckeyes (+35.5) |
Still perfect against the spread after four or more games: UCLA Bruins, Northwestern Wildcats, Utah Utes, Duke Blue Devils, BYU Cougars. Yet to cover once: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
The biggest numbers are often outside the Power 4, where markets have less information to work with early. New Mexico Lobos leads all of FBS at +19.3.
Top five
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico Lobos | Mountain West | +19.3 | 5-0 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 2 | Georgia State Panthers | Sun Belt | +17.7 | 5-0 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 3 | James Madison Dukes | Sun Belt | +17.4 | 5-0 | @ Georgia Southern Eagles (-9.5) |
| 4 | Oregon State Beavers | Pac-12 | +15.5 | 5-0 | vs San Diego State Aztecs |
| 5 | Sam Houston Bearkats | C-USA | +14.1 | 3-1 | @ Liberty Flames (+13.5) |
Bottom five
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Old Dominion Monarchs | Sun Belt | -16.2 | 0-5 | @ App State Mountaineers (+6.5) |
| 2 | Marshall Thundering Herd | Sun Belt | -13.2 | 1-4 | vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers |
| 3 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | C-USA | -10.7 | 2-3 | vs Missouri State Bears (-1.5) |
| 4 | UL Monroe Warhawks | Sun Belt | -10.1 | 1-4 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 5 | Charlotte 49ers | American | -9.7 | 2-3 | @ North Texas Mean Green |
Before you bet the top of this list, here is the test we ran. For every season from 2022 to 2025, we took each team's ATS margin through Week 5 and compared it with the same team's ATS margin for the rest of that season. If early covers predicted later covers, the two would move together. They didn't: the average correlation was -0.01, which is indistinguishable from zero.
| Season | Teams | Correlation | Early top 10, rest of season | Covered | Early bottom 10, rest of season | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 131 | -0.17 | -1.2 | 48% | +1.8 | 54% |
| 2023 | 133 | -0.05 | -1.3 | 45% | -0.5 | 51% |
| 2024 | 134 | +0.04 | +0.6 | 49% | -0.5 | 49% |
| 2025 | 136 | +0.15 | +0.6 | 53% | -2.0 | 44% |
The reason is simple. Sportsbooks see the same scores you do and move the next line to match. A team that has beaten the number by two touchdowns a game gets priced like it. So this list tells you who has surprised the market, and it is a good place to start digging. It is not a betting system on its own: the useful question is whether the team has actually changed (a new quarterback, a healthier roster, a coordinator who fits), or whether it has just been lucky and the line has already moved past it.
Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers as published through ESPN's odds feed, and final scores come from ESPN. Regular-season games only, Weeks 0 through 5, and a team needs 3 or more games with a line to be ranked. A push counts as zero and shows as the third number in the record. "Next game" is the team's DraftKings line for the coming week as of publishing; lines move, so check the book before you act on one.
For entertainment and information. Nothing here is a guarantee of any result. If you bet, bet what you can afford to lose; help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers via ESPN's odds feed; scores are ESPN's. The carry-forward test is rerun from 2022-2025 closing lines every time this page is built.
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