College Football · ATS Tracker

College Football ATS Tracker: Week 6

UCLA Bruins leads the Power 4 at +16.8 points a game against the spread; Washington Huskies trails at -13.1. Every FBS team's cover margin, and why the market has probably caught up already.

448 FBS games with a closing line, Weeks 0-6 · DraftKings closing spreads · 138 teams with 3+ games

Which college football teams are beating the spread, and which ones keep letting bettors down? This tracker ranks every FBS team by its average margin against the spread (ATS) through Week 6: how many points a game it has finished ahead of, or behind, the closing line. A 7-point favorite that wins by 10 is +3. A 7-point underdog that loses by 3 is +4. Positive means the market has been underrating the team so far; negative means overrating it.

Most underrated in the Power 4 through Week 6

#TeamConfAvg ATS marginATS recordNext game (line)
1UCLA BruinsBig Ten+16.85-0vs Wisconsin Badgers
2Northwestern WildcatsBig Ten+13.54-1@ Michigan State Spartans (-8.5)
3Wake Forest Demon DeaconsACC+12.64-2@ California Golden Bears
4Alabama Crimson TideSEC+10.74-2@ Tennessee Volunteers (-6.5)
5Utah UtesBig 12+9.55-0@ Colorado Buffaloes (-16.5)
6Baylor BearsBig 12+9.34-1vs TCU Horned Frogs (-6.5)
7Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten+8.45-1@ Oregon Ducks
8Miami HurricanesACC+7.84-1vs Florida State Seminoles (-21)
9Duke Blue DevilsACC+7.44-1vs North Carolina Tar Heels (-3)
10Georgia BulldogsSEC+7.35-1vs Auburn Tigers (-18.5)

Most overrated in the Power 4 through Week 6

#TeamConfAvg ATS marginATS recordNext game (line)
1Washington HuskiesBig Ten-13.11-5@ Purdue Boilermakers (+2.5)
2Stanford CardinalACC-11.22-4vs Elon Phoenix
3Colorado BuffaloesBig 12-8.11-4vs Utah Utes (+16.5)
4Rutgers Scarlet KnightsBig Ten-6.92-3@ Maryland Terrapins (+4.5)
5Vanderbilt CommodoresSEC-6.83-3vs Arkansas Razorbacks (-6.5)
6Clemson TigersACC-6.82-3vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers
7Arizona State Sun DevilsBig 12-6.72-3@ Texas Tech Red Raiders (+12.5)
8Texas Tech Red RaidersBig 12-6.72-3vs Arizona State Sun Devils (-12.5)
9Michigan WolverinesBig Ten-6.32-3vs Penn State Nittany Lions (-6)
10Maryland TerrapinsBig Ten-5.53-3vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4.5)

Still perfect against the spread after four or more games: UCLA Bruins, Utah Utes, BYU Cougars.

Group of 5 corner

The biggest numbers are often outside the Power 4, where markets have less information to work with early. New Mexico Lobos leads all of FBS at +19.3.

Top five

#TeamConfAvg ATS marginATS recordNext game (line)
1New Mexico LobosMountain West+19.35-0@ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
2Oregon State BeaversPac-12+19.26-0vs Washington State Cougars (-17.5)
3Georgia State PanthersSun Belt+17.75-0@ James Madison Dukes
4James Madison DukesSun Belt+13.85-1vs Georgia State Panthers
5UConn HuskiesIndependent+10.34-2Bye, or no line yet

Bottom five

#TeamConfAvg ATS marginATS recordNext game (line)
1Marshall Thundering HerdSun Belt-12.81-5Bye, or no line yet
2San Diego State AztecsPac-12-12.31-5vs Fresno State Bulldogs (+8.5)
3Old Dominion MonarchsSun Belt-10.91-5vs Georgia Southern Eagles (+3.5)
4Charlotte 49ersAmerican-10.22-4@ Temple Owls
5UL Monroe WarhawksSun Belt-10.11-4vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Does a hot ATS start carry forward? Not really

Before you bet the top of this list, here is the test we ran. For every season from 2022 to 2025, we took each team's ATS margin through Week 6 and compared it with the same team's ATS margin for the rest of that season. If early covers predicted later covers, the two would move together. They didn't: the average correlation was -0.02, which is indistinguishable from zero.

SeasonTeamsCorrelationEarly top 10, rest of seasonCoveredEarly bottom 10, rest of seasonCovered
2022130-0.18-1.744%+2.058%
2023133-0.01-2.540%+0.457%
2024134-0.02+0.848%-1.148%
2025136+0.13+1.259%-2.146%

The reason is simple. Sportsbooks see the same scores you do and move the next line to match. A team that has beaten the number by two touchdowns a game gets priced like it. So this list tells you who has surprised the market, and it is a good place to start digging. It is not a betting system on its own: the useful question is whether the team has actually changed (a new quarterback, a healthier roster, a coordinator who fits), or whether it has just been lucky and the line has already moved past it.

How we calculate it

Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers as published through ESPN's odds feed, and final scores come from ESPN. Regular-season games only, Weeks 0 through 6, and a team needs 3 or more games with a line to be ranked. A push counts as zero and shows as the third number in the record. "Next game" is the team's DraftKings line for the coming week as of publishing; lines move, so check the book before you act on one.

For entertainment and information. Nothing here is a guarantee of any result. If you bet, bet what you can afford to lose; help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.

Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers via ESPN's odds feed; scores are ESPN's. The carry-forward test is rerun from 2022-2025 closing lines every time this page is built.

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