College Football · ATS Tracker
Wake Forest Demon Deacons leads the Power 4 at +14.2 points a game against the spread; California Golden Bears trails at -9.2. Every FBS team's cover margin, and why the market has probably caught up already.
Which college football teams are beating the spread, and which ones keep letting bettors down? This tracker ranks every FBS team by its average margin against the spread (ATS) through Week 8: how many points a game it has finished ahead of, or behind, the closing line. A 7-point favorite that wins by 10 is +3. A 7-point underdog that loses by 3 is +4. Positive means the market has been underrating the team so far; negative means overrating it.
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | ACC | +14.2 | 5-2 | vs Virginia Cavaliers (-13.5) |
| 2 | UCLA Bruins | Big Ten | +13.4 | 7-0 | vs Nevada Wolf Pack (-23.5) |
| 3 | Northwestern Wildcats | Big Ten | +10.8 | 5-2 | @ Oregon Ducks (+4.5) |
| 4 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | Big Ten | +7.7 | 6-1 | vs Washington Huskies (-9.5) |
| 5 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | Big 12 | +7.3 | 6-1 | @ Iowa State Cyclones |
| 6 | Kentucky Wildcats | SEC | +7.2 | 7-1 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 7 | UCF Knights | Big 12 | +6.6 | 5-2 | vs Baylor Bears (-2.5) |
| 8 | LSU Tigers | SEC | +6.2 | 4-4 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 9 | Arizona Wildcats | Big 12 | +5.9 | 3-4 | @ Texas Tech Red Raiders (+4.5) |
| 10 | Wisconsin Badgers | Big Ten | +5.7 | 4-3 | @ Iowa Hawkeyes (+3.5) |
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California Golden Bears | ACC | -9.2 | 2-6 | @ NC State Wolfpack |
| 2 | Washington Huskies | Big Ten | -9.1 | 2-5 | @ Nebraska Cornhuskers (+9.5) |
| 3 | Vanderbilt Commodores | SEC | -8.0 | 3-5 | Bye, or no line yet |
| 4 | Stanford Cardinal | ACC | -7.9 | 3-5 | @ Louisville Cardinals |
| 5 | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | ACC | -7.7 | 1-6 | @ Pittsburgh Panthers |
| 6 | Oregon Ducks | Big Ten | -7.3 | 2-5 | vs Northwestern Wildcats (-4.5) |
| 7 | USC Trojans | Big Ten | -6.9 | 2-6 | vs Ohio State Buckeyes (+7) |
| 8 | Colorado Buffaloes | Big 12 | -6.9 | 2-5 | vs Kansas State Wildcats |
| 9 | Clemson Tigers | ACC | -6.6 | 2-5 | @ Florida State Seminoles (+5.5) |
| 10 | Maryland Terrapins | Big Ten | -6.5 | 3-4 | vs Illinois Fighting Illini |
Still perfect against the spread after four or more games: UCLA Bruins.
The biggest numbers are often outside the Power 4, where markets have less information to work with early. Oregon State Beavers leads all of FBS at +16.4.
Top five
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon State Beavers | Pac-12 | +16.4 | 6-1 | @ Fresno State Bulldogs (-7) |
| 2 | New Mexico Lobos | Mountain West | +13.4 | 6-1 | @ San José State Spartans |
| 3 | James Madison Dukes | Sun Belt | +10.9 | 6-2 | vs Troy Trojans (-17.5) |
| 4 | UConn Huskies | Independent | +9.8 | 5-2 | @ Air Force Falcons |
| 5 | North Texas Mean Green | American | +8.8 | 5-2 | vs Florida Atlantic Owls (-12.5) |
Bottom five
| # | Team | Conf | Avg ATS margin | ATS record | Next game (line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Old Dominion Monarchs | Sun Belt | -10.4 | 1-7 | vs Marshall Thundering Herd |
| 2 | Northern Illinois Huskies | Mountain West | -10.0 | 1-6 | @ UNLV Rebels |
| 3 | Sacramento State Hornets | MAC | -9.8 | 2-6 | vs Kent State Golden Flashes (+10) |
| 4 | Marshall Thundering Herd | Sun Belt | -9.7 | 2-5 | @ Old Dominion Monarchs |
| 5 | San Diego State Aztecs | Pac-12 | -9.1 | 2-6 | vs Washington State Cougars |
Before you bet the top of this list, here is the test we ran. For every season from 2022 to 2025, we took each team's ATS margin through Week 8 and compared it with the same team's ATS margin for the rest of that season. If early covers predicted later covers, the two would move together. They didn't: the average correlation was +0.00, which is indistinguishable from zero.
| Season | Teams | Correlation | Early top 10, rest of season | Covered | Early bottom 10, rest of season | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 88 | -0.14 | -1.8 | 43% | -0.3 | 48% |
| 2023 | 101 | +0.03 | +2.5 | 53% | +1.9 | 55% |
| 2024 | 132 | -0.02 | +0.9 | 51% | -2.0 | 45% |
| 2025 | 132 | +0.14 | +2.9 | 65% | +0.9 | 56% |
The reason is simple. Sportsbooks see the same scores you do and move the next line to match. A team that has beaten the number by two touchdowns a game gets priced like it. So this list tells you who has surprised the market, and it is a good place to start digging. It is not a betting system on its own: the useful question is whether the team has actually changed (a new quarterback, a healthier roster, a coordinator who fits), or whether it has just been lucky and the line has already moved past it.
Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers as published through ESPN's odds feed, and final scores come from ESPN. Regular-season games only, Weeks 0 through 8, and a team needs 3 or more games with a line to be ranked. A push counts as zero and shows as the third number in the record. "Next game" is the team's DraftKings line for the coming week as of publishing; lines move, so check the book before you act on one.
For entertainment and information. Nothing here is a guarantee of any result. If you bet, bet what you can afford to lose; help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Closing spreads are DraftKings' numbers via ESPN's odds feed; scores are ESPN's. The carry-forward test is rerun from 2022-2025 closing lines every time this page is built.
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