Southeastern Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Our read · from the ratings, schedule and roster below
The fastest pace in ATO's top 25 belongs to Alabama, giving its projection a distinct shape. ATO's ratings put Alabama #23 overall, with the #8 offense ahead of the #50 defense. The projected path to wins depends more on scoring through that pace than on suppressing opponents.
The hardest games put the projected 19-11 record under pressure away from home. ATO projects Alabama to finish 11-7 in the SEC, with Alabama's win probabilities at 32% at Tennessee and 37% at Arkansas. The lowest probability is 26% against Houston at neutral-site Madison Square Garden. The risk concentrates on conference road trips, alongside that neutral-site matchup.
The largest projected role belongs to a transfer, but returners share the scoring responsibility. ATO's rotation projection puts Drew Fielder at 19.7 minutes and 11.6 points, matching returner Aden Holloway's 11.6 points in 18.5 minutes. Returner Amari Allen projects for 18.6 minutes and 8.3 points; recruit Jaxon Richardson adds 14.0 minutes and 5.1 points. Newcomers matter beyond the leading scorer.
What would change our readFielder falling below his projected 19.7 minutes would lower confidence in the #8 offensive rating, given his projected share of the scoring.
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 19.3
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tue Nov 3, time TBA | Sam Houston #138 | Home | −18.2 | 95% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, time TBA | Arkansas State #155 | Home | −19.5 | 96% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, time TBA | Oakland #147 | Home | −18.6 | 95% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Home | −8.1 | 77% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, time TBA | Kennesaw State #174 | Home | −20.6 | 97% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, 10:00 PM ET | Baylor #43 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | −3.8 | 64% |
| 7 | Wed Dec 2, 9:15 PM ET | Miami #24 | Away ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | +2.0 | 43% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 8, 6:30 PM ET | Houston #3 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Madison Square Garden Jimmy V Classic | +7.2 | 26% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 3:30 PM ET | St. John's #17 | Neutral at Legacy Arena at BJCC C.M. Newton Classic | +1.3 | 45% |
| 10 | Wed Dec 16, 7:00 PM ET | South Florida #67 | Away | −5.2 | 68% |
| 11 | Mon Dec 21, 7:00 PM ET | Iowa #31 | Neutral at Casey's Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | −1.5 | 55% |
| 12 | Tue Dec 29, 10:00 PM ET | Samford #215 | Home | −21.6 | 98% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | Mississippi State #88 | Away · conference | −8.3 | 78% |
| 14 | Tue Jan 5, 7:00 PM ET | LSU #53 | Home · conference | −8.1 | 77% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 2:00 PM ET | Arkansas #16 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +3.7 | 37% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Ole Miss #59 | Home · conference | −8.3 | 78% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +3.3 | 38% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 20, 6:00 PM ET | South Carolina #100 | Away · conference | −9.4 | 80% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 8:30 PM ET | Oklahoma #32 | Home · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 26, 9:00 PM ET | Missouri #48 | Away · conference | −2.8 | 60% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Auburn #36 | Home · conference | −4.9 | 67% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 2:00 PM ET | Kentucky #26 | Away · conference | +2.0 | 43% |
| 23 | Tue Feb 9, 7:00 PM ET | Texas #20 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +2.5 | 41% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 8:00 PM ET | Arkansas #16 | Home · conference | −0.9 | 53% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 16, 9:00 PM ET | Mississippi State #88 | Home · conference | −12.8 | 88% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 2:00 PM ET | Tennessee #11 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +5.3 | 32% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 23, 9:00 PM ET | Texas A&M #37 | Away · conference | −1.0 | 54% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 8:30 PM ET | Vanderbilt #18 | Home · conference | −1.8 | 56% |
| 29 | Wed Mar 3, 7:00 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Home · conference | −5.8 | 70% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 6:00 PM ET | Auburn #36 | Away · conference | −0.5 | 52% |
Spread is from Alabama's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| # | Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Drew Fielder | C | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | #115 | 14.7 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 23.7 | 19.7 | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.0 |
| 5 | Amari Allen | SF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | #74 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 28.2 | 18.6 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 |
| 2 | Aden Holloway | PG | 6-1 | SR | Returning | #18 | 16.8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 28.4 | 18.5 | 11.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| 0 | Jamarion Davis-Fleming | PF | 6-10 | SO | Transfer | #94 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 0.7 | 20.2 | 14.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 23 | Jaxon Richardson | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #26 | · | · | · | · | 14.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 9 | Brandon Garrison | C | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #44 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 16.3 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 6 | London Jemison | PF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | #32 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | Anderson Diaz | PG | 6-1 | FR | Recruit | #56 | · | · | · | · | 12.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 11 | Qayden Samuels | SG | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #32 | · | · | · | · | 12.8 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | Tarris Bouie | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #51 | · | · | · | · | 10.8 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 10 | Keitenn Bristow | PF | 6-10 | JR | Returning | #226 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 |
| · | Jack Fagan | PG | 5-10 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 3 | Preston Murphy Jr. | PG | 6-1 | SR | Walk-on | · | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 34 | Collins Onyejiaka | C | 6-11 | SO | Returning | #158 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 33 | Cole Cloer | SF | 6-7 | RS FR | Transfer | #59 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.