NBA · Today's slate
Lines board
Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 4 games, 4 with a DraftKings price, 4 with a Novig price, 4 with a number from us
Built 1 November 2026 at 2:02 AM ET
The slate
Away team above, home team below and marked (H). Scores are our projections. In tip-off order by default; click any column heading to sort by it, and tap a game for the full breakdown.
| Matchup & projected score | Our lean | Novig spread | Novig total | Novig home % | DK spread | DK total | Our total | DK ML | DK home % | Our spread | Our home % | Our fair ML | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Boston
114
Orlando
113
|
Orlando +6.5 Line as of 2:02 AM ET
Over 222.5
Novig Boston −6.5 · O/U 222.5 · home 31%
DK Boston −6.5 · O/U 222.5 · Ours Boston −1.4 · O/U 226.9
|
Boston −6.5 | 222.5 | 31% | Boston −6.5 | 222.5 | 226.9 | -258 / +210 | 31% | Boston −1.4 | 46% | -117 / +117 | +5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Boston 114 at Orlando 113, a total of 226.9 against the market's 222.5. Our spread is Boston −1.4 against DraftKings' Boston −6.5, 5.1 points toward Orlando. We give Orlando 46% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 31%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Boston -117, Orlando +117, against DraftKings' Boston -258, Orlando +210. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanOrlando +6.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Brooklyn
112
Indiana
116
|
No lean Line as of 2:02 AM ET
Under 230.5
Novig Indiana −4.5 · O/U 230.5 · home 60%
DK Indiana −4.5 · O/U 230.5 · Ours Indiana −3.9 · O/U 228.6
|
Indiana −4.5 | 230.5 | 60% | Indiana −4.5 | 230.5 | 228.6 | +145 / -175 | 61% | Indiana −3.9 | 61% | +157 / -157 | -0.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Brooklyn 112 at Indiana 116, a total of 228.6 against the market's 230.5. Our spread is Indiana −3.9 against DraftKings' Indiana −4.5, 0.6 points toward Brooklyn. We give Indiana 61% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 61%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Brooklyn +157, Indiana -157, against DraftKings' Brooklyn +145, Indiana -175. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
LA
114
Golden State
115
|
LA +2.5 Line as of 2:02 AM ET
Over 219.5
Novig Golden State −3.5 · O/U 219.5 · home 54%
DK Golden State −2.5 · O/U 219.5 · Ours Golden State −0.1 · O/U 228.9
|
Golden State −3.5 | 219.5 | 54% | Golden State −2.5 | 219.5 | 228.9 | +114 / -135 | 55% | Golden State −0.1 | 50% | +101 / -101 | -2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score LA 114 at Golden State 115, a total of 228.9 against the market's 219.5. Our spread is Golden State −0.1 against DraftKings' Golden State −2.5, 2.4 points toward LA. We give Golden State 50% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 55%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads LA +101, Golden State -101, against DraftKings' LA +114, Golden State -135. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanLA +2.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Toronto
114
Los Angeles
115
|
Toronto +4.5 Line as of 2:02 AM ET
No total lean
Novig Los Angeles −4.5 · O/U 227.5 · home 63%
DK Los Angeles −4.5 · O/U 227.5 · Ours Los Angeles −1.5 · O/U 228.6
|
Los Angeles −4.5 | 227.5 | 63% | Los Angeles −4.5 | 227.5 | 228.6 | +150 / -180 | 62% | Los Angeles −1.5 | 54% | +119 / -119 | -3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Toronto 114 at Los Angeles 115, a total of 228.6 against the market's 227.5. Our spread is Los Angeles −1.5 against DraftKings' Los Angeles −4.5, 3.0 points toward Toronto. We give Los Angeles 54% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 62%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Toronto +119, Los Angeles -119, against DraftKings' Toronto +150, Los Angeles -180. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanToronto +4.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before tip-off yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How to read Our lean. It names the side our number points to and the DraftKings line that side has to beat. When our spread and DraftKings' are within 1.5 points of each other it says No lean. Under it is the total lean: Over or Under DraftKings' total when our projected total is 1.5 points or more away from it. DraftKings' numbers are the current line, refreshed every hour, and each lean is stamped with the time of the line it uses, so a lean can move with the line. A lean is what our number says, not a recommendation to bet it.
Gap is our spread minus DraftKings', counted in home-team points: a plus number leans to the home team and a minus number to the away team.
Projected scores are ours, margin and total. Our totals have not been shown to beat the market's, which is why DraftKings' total sits right next to them.
Both percentage columns are the home team's chance of winning, so they read straight across. DK's moneyline is shown as posted, away then home, and its percentage is de-vigged: the book's fee is removed so its number means the same thing as ours. 4 of the 4 games have a posted moneyline. Our fair ML is our win chance written as a moneyline with no fee, away then home: what our number thinks the moneyline should be, to read next to DraftKings'.
Where we disagree most
Every game with a DraftKings line and a number from us: 4 of the 4 on the slate.
| Game | Our lean | Market | Ours | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston at Orlando | Orlando +6.5 | Boston −6.5 | Boston −1.4 | +5.1 |
| Toronto at Los Angeles | Toronto +4.5 | Los Angeles −4.5 | Los Angeles −1.5 | -3.0 |
| LA at Golden State | LA +2.5 | Golden State −2.5 | Golden State −0.1 | -2.4 |
| Brooklyn at Indiana | No lean | Indiana −4.5 | Indiana −3.9 | -0.6 |
Worth watching to see whether the disagreements are systematic. That is a different question from whether any single one of them is right.
What is behind the numbers
Team offense and defense ratings fitted on every regular-season game since 2021-22, with recent games counting more, plus home court and the second night of a back-to-back. Fitted on 6,153 games; home court 1.9 points. Win chance is the normal CDF of our margin over 14.0 points, the typical size of our past misses.
Graded game by game on every regular-season game since 2021-22, each predicted only from games played before it (6,151 games). Our spread missed the final margin by 10.96 points on average. On the 6,150 of those games where ESPN kept a closing line (DraftKings, or ESPN BET in the seasons ESPN carried that book), ours missed by 10.96 and the closing line by 10.47. The closing line was the more accurate number. Taking our side of the closing spread would have been right 49.7% of the time over 6,083 games, against the roughly 52.4% needed to beat the standard price.
FanDuel prices are not on this board.