College football

Today's slate: our number and the market's.

Every game today with the implied points each side is expected to score, and the players from our board who are in it. 0 of our 293 ranked players are in action.

Two kinds of number here, and the page keeps them apart. Implied totals are the market's: arithmetic on the published line, where the favourite's share is (total + spread) ÷ 2. The tinted row is ours: a predicted margin from power ratings fitted on 9,276 games back to 2021. A check on September 4 against 38 closing lines found a mean gap of 5.0 points from the market, with 76% inside a touchdown. It has not been remeasured for the current ratings, so treat a gap under about five points as agreement.

No games today.
College football is mostly a Thursday-to-Saturday sport, so most days this page is empty. It fills itself from the schedule on game days.

See Saturday, Nov 7’s slate → · This week’s lines board · Full schedule

Where our number disagrees with the line, do not read it as an edge. Measured on 5,850 games from 2022-2025 with real closing lines: our margin error is 14.25 points against the market's 11.96, and taking our own side of every disagreement would have gone 49.1% against a 52.38% break-even, with no size of disagreement doing better. We also tested blending the two, and the best weight on our number came out at zero. The column is here to show how our rating sees a matchup, not to beat a price.

Novig rows show that exchange's spread, total and moneyline for each game that has not started, refreshed hourly. If Novig has no price for a game, the row says so. A Novig price is what backing a side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig’s margin. The two sides of a market add to a little over 100c. The spread and total shown are the rungs closest to the DraftKings line. Prices from Novig.

Books (consensus) is hidden right now: the newest books snapshot is more than 2 hours old. Our number and Novig are unaffected. The column returns on its own when fresh prices land.

Lines and schedule from ESPN, refreshed every few minutes. Player ranks are ours and are season-long best-ball ranks, not a view on today. Separate per-game projections power the college DFS builder. Per-player usage is collected weekly for the members' usage board.

Estimates, not guarantees. Every number here is a model output or a market price, and none of it predicts a result. You must be 21 or older to bet where sports betting is legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.