NFL · This week's slate
Lines board
Sunday 1 to Monday 2 November 2026 · 13 games, 13 with a DraftKings price, 13 with a Novig price, 13 with a number from us
Built 1 November 2026 at 2:01 AM ET
The slate
Away team above, home team below and marked (H). Scores are our projections. In kickoff order by default; click any column heading to sort by it, and tap a game for the full breakdown.
| Matchup & projected score | Our lean | Novig spread | Novig total | Novig home % | DK spread | DK total | Our total | DK ML | DK home % | Our spread | Our home % | Our fair ML | Gap | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Sunday, November 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Arizona
25
Dallas
30
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Arizona +7 Line as of 2:01 AM ET
No total lean
Novig Dallas −7.5 · O/U 54.5 · home 74%
DK Dallas −7 · O/U 54.5 · Ours Dallas −4.8 · O/U 54.7
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Dallas −7.5 | 54.5 | 74% | Dallas −7 | 54.5 | 54.7 | +260 / -325 | 73% | Dallas −4.8 | 64% | +177 / -177 | -2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Arizona 25 at Dallas 30, a total of 54.7 against the market's 54.5. Our spread is Dallas −4.8 against DraftKings' Dallas −7, 2.2 points toward Arizona. We give Dallas 64% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 73%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Arizona +177, Dallas -177, against DraftKings' Arizona +260, Dallas -325. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanArizona +7: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Atlanta
22
Tampa Bay
26
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Tampa Bay −1.5 Line as of 2:01 AM ET
Over 43.5
Novig Tampa Bay −1.5 · O/U 43.5 · home 55%
DK Tampa Bay −1.5 · O/U 43.5 · Ours Tampa Bay −3.1 · O/U 47.9
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Tampa Bay −1.5 | 43.5 | 55% | Tampa Bay −1.5 | 43.5 | 47.9 | +105 / -125 | 53% | Tampa Bay −3.1 | 59% | +145 / -145 | +1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Atlanta 22 at Tampa Bay 26, a total of 47.9 against the market's 43.5. Our spread is Tampa Bay −3.1 against DraftKings' Tampa Bay −1.5, 1.6 points toward Tampa Bay. We give Tampa Bay 59% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 53%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Atlanta +145, Tampa Bay -145, against DraftKings' Atlanta +105, Tampa Bay -125. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanTampa Bay −1.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Baltimore
26
Buffalo
30
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No lean Line as of 2:01 AM ET
No total lean
Novig Buffalo −3.5 · O/U 54.5 · home 61%
DK Buffalo −3.5 · O/U 54.5 · Ours Buffalo −3.6 · O/U 55.4
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Buffalo −3.5 | 54.5 | 61% | Buffalo −3.5 | 54.5 | 55.4 | +142 / -170 | 60% | Buffalo −3.6 | 61% | +154 / -154 | +0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Baltimore 26 at Buffalo 30, a total of 55.4 against the market's 54.5. Our spread is Buffalo −3.6 against DraftKings' Buffalo −3.5, 0.1 points toward Buffalo. We give Buffalo 61% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 60%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Baltimore +154, Buffalo -154, against DraftKings' Baltimore +142, Buffalo -170. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Cleveland
18
Pittsburgh
22
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No lean Line as of 2:01 AM ET
No total lean
Novig Pittsburgh −3.5 · O/U 39.5 · home 64%
DK Pittsburgh −3.5 · O/U 39.5 · Ours Pittsburgh −4 · O/U 40.2
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Pittsburgh −3.5 | 39.5 | 64% | Pittsburgh −3.5 | 39.5 | 40.2 | +160 / -192 | 63% | Pittsburgh −4 | 62% | +162 / -162 | +0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Cleveland 18 at Pittsburgh 22, a total of 40.2 against the market's 39.5. Our spread is Pittsburgh −4 against DraftKings' Pittsburgh −3.5, 0.5 points toward Pittsburgh. We give Pittsburgh 62% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 63%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Cleveland +162, Pittsburgh -162, against DraftKings' Cleveland +160, Pittsburgh -192. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Indianapolis
22
Jacksonville
28
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Indianapolis +10 Line as of 2:01 AM ET
Over 46.5
Novig Jacksonville −10.5 · O/U 46.5 · home 81%
DK Jacksonville −10 · O/U 46.5 · Ours Jacksonville −6.3 · O/U 49.6
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Jacksonville −10.5 | 46.5 | 81% | Jacksonville −10 | 46.5 | 49.6 | +370 / -485 | 80% | Jacksonville −6.3 | 68% | +214 / -214 | -3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Indianapolis 22 at Jacksonville 28, a total of 49.6 against the market's 46.5. Our spread is Jacksonville −6.3 against DraftKings' Jacksonville −10, 3.7 points toward Indianapolis. We give Jacksonville 68% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 80%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Indianapolis +214, Jacksonville -214, against DraftKings' Indianapolis +370, Jacksonville -485. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanIndianapolis +10: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Las Vegas
23
New York
24
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No lean Line as of 2:01 AM ET
No total lean
Novig New York −1.5 · O/U 46.5 · home 53%
DK New York −1.5 · O/U 46.5 · Ours New York −0.6 · O/U 47.1
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New York −1.5 | 46.5 | 53% | New York −1.5 | 46.5 | 47.1 | +102 / -122 | 53% | New York −0.6 | 52% | +107 / -107 | -0.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Las Vegas 23 at New York 24, a total of 47.1 against the market's 46.5. Our spread is New York −0.6 against DraftKings' New York −1.5, 0.9 points toward Las Vegas. We give New York 52% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 53%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Las Vegas +107, New York -107, against DraftKings' Las Vegas +102, New York -122. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Minnesota
24
Detroit
23
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Minnesota +3 Line as of 2:01 AM ET
No total lean
Novig Detroit −3.5 · O/U 46.5 · home 62%
DK Detroit −3 · O/U 46.5 · Ours Minnesota −0.3 · O/U 46.2
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Detroit −3.5 | 46.5 | 62% | Detroit −3 | 46.5 | 46.2 | +142 / -170 | 60% | Minnesota −0.3 | 49% | -103 / +103 | -3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Minnesota 24 at Detroit 23, a total of 46.2 against the market's 46.5. Our spread is Minnesota −0.3 against DraftKings' Detroit −3, 3.3 points toward Minnesota. We give Detroit 49% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 60%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Minnesota -103, Detroit +103, against DraftKings' Minnesota +142, Detroit -170. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanMinnesota +3: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Tennessee
19
Cincinnati
28
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Tennessee +12.5 Line as of 2:01 AM ET
No total lean
Novig Cincinnati −11.5 · O/U 46.5 · home 86%
DK Cincinnati −12.5 · O/U 46.5 · Ours Cincinnati −9.3 · O/U 46.7
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Cincinnati −11.5 | 46.5 | 86% | Cincinnati −12.5 | 46.5 | 46.7 | +500 / -700 | 84% | Cincinnati −9.3 | 76% | +311 / -311 | -3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Tennessee 19 at Cincinnati 28, a total of 46.7 against the market's 46.5. Our spread is Cincinnati −9.3 against DraftKings' Cincinnati −12.5, 3.2 points toward Tennessee. We give Cincinnati 76% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 84%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Tennessee +311, Cincinnati -311, against DraftKings' Tennessee +500, Cincinnati -700. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanTennessee +12.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Los Angeles
18
Los Angeles
25
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No lean Line as of 2:01 AM ET
Under 45.5
Novig Los Angeles −6.5 · O/U 45.5 · home 72%
DK Los Angeles −6.5 · O/U 45.5 · Ours Los Angeles −6.7 · O/U 43.6
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Los Angeles −6.5 | 45.5 | 72% | Los Angeles −6.5 | 45.5 | 43.6 | +210 / -258 | 69% | Los Angeles −6.7 | 69% | +225 / -225 | +0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Los Angeles 18 at Los Angeles 25, a total of 43.6 against the market's 45.5. Our spread is Los Angeles −6.7 against DraftKings' Los Angeles −6.5, 0.2 points toward Los Angeles. We give Los Angeles 69% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 69%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Los Angeles +225, Los Angeles -225, against DraftKings' Los Angeles +210, Los Angeles -258. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Kansas City
20
Denver
21
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Denver +1.5 Line as of 2:01 AM ET
No total lean
Novig Kansas City −1.5 · O/U 40.5 · home 48%
DK Kansas City −1.5 · O/U 40.5 · Ours Denver −0.3 · O/U 40.1
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Kansas City −1.5 | 40.5 | 48% | Kansas City −1.5 | 40.5 | 40.1 | -115 / -105 | 49% | Denver −0.3 | 51% | +104 / -104 | +1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Kansas City 20 at Denver 21, a total of 40.1 against the market's 40.5. Our spread is Denver −0.3 against DraftKings' Kansas City −1.5, 1.9 points toward Denver. We give Denver 51% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 49%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Kansas City +104, Denver -104, against DraftKings' Kansas City -115, Denver -105. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanDenver +1.5: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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New England
25
Miami
18
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No lean Line as of 2:01 AM ET
No total lean
Novig New England −6.5 · O/U 43.5 · home 24%
DK New England −7 · O/U 43.5 · Ours New England −6.5 · O/U 43.0
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New England −6.5 | 43.5 | 24% | New England −7 | 43.5 | 43.0 | -340 / +270 | 26% | New England −6.5 | 31% | -218 / +218 | +0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score New England 25 at Miami 18, a total of 43.0 against the market's 43.5. Our spread is New England −6.5 against DraftKings' New England −7, 0.5 points toward Miami. We give Miami 31% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 26%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads New England -218, Miami +218, against DraftKings' New England -340, Miami +270. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanNo lean: our spread and the market's are within 1.5 points of each other. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Philadelphia
24
Washington
23
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Philadelphia +6 Line as of 2:01 AM ET
Over 40.5
Novig Washington −6.5 · O/U 40.5 · home 70%
DK Washington −6 · O/U 40.5 · Ours Philadelphia −0.8 · O/U 46.2
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Washington −6.5 | 40.5 | 70% | Washington −6 | 40.5 | 46.2 | +210 / -258 | 69% | Philadelphia −0.8 | 48% | -109 / +109 | -6.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Philadelphia 24 at Washington 23, a total of 46.2 against the market's 40.5. Our spread is Philadelphia −0.8 against DraftKings' Washington −6, 6.8 points toward Philadelphia. We give Washington 48% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 69%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Philadelphia -109, Washington +109, against DraftKings' Philadelphia +210, Washington -258. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanPhiladelphia +6: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monday, November 2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Chicago
21
Seattle
22
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Chicago +3 Line as of 2:01 AM ET
Under 46.5
Novig Seattle −3.5 · O/U 46.5 · home 60%
DK Seattle −3 · O/U 46.5 · Ours Seattle −1 · O/U 43.7
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Seattle −3.5 | 46.5 | 60% | Seattle −3 | 46.5 | 43.7 | +140 / -166 | 60% | Seattle −1 | 53% | +113 / -113 | -2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What our number seesProjected score Chicago 21 at Seattle 22, a total of 43.7 against the market's 46.5. Our spread is Seattle −1 against DraftKings' Seattle −3, 2.0 points toward Chicago. We give Seattle 53% to win; the book's moneyline, with its margin removed, says 60%. As a moneyline with no book fee, our chance reads Chicago +113, Seattle -113, against DraftKings' Chicago +140, Seattle -166. Seattle lists Sam Darnold as its starting quarterback instead of Drew Lock; our number accounts for it. Every market, side by side
Win chances compare with the moneyline once the book's margin is removed. Spread sides are priced near even by the book, so they read against 50%. A gap is what our number says, not a recommendation, and the market has been more accurate than our number on past games. What Novig charges
A price is what backing that side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig's margin. Both sides of a market add to a little over 100c. Novig lines can sit a half point from DraftKings'. Prices from Novig. Our leanChicago +3: the side our number points to, and the DraftKings line it has to beat. This board does not freeze leans before kickoff yet, so a lean can move with the line. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
How to read Our lean. It names the side our number points to and the DraftKings line that side has to beat. When our spread and DraftKings' are within 1.5 points of each other it says No lean. Under it is the total lean: Over or Under DraftKings' total when our projected total is 1.5 points or more away from it. DraftKings' numbers are the current line, refreshed every hour, and each lean is stamped with the time of the line it uses, so a lean can move with the line. A lean is what our number says, not a recommendation to bet it.
Gap is our spread minus DraftKings', counted in home-team points: a plus number leans to the home team and a minus number to the away team.
Projected scores are ours, margin and total. Our totals have not been shown to beat the market's, which is why DraftKings' total sits right next to them.
Both percentage columns are the home team's chance of winning, so they read straight across. DK's moneyline is shown as posted, away then home, and its percentage is de-vigged: the book's fee is removed so its number means the same thing as ours. 13 of the 13 games have a posted moneyline. Our fair ML is our win chance written as a moneyline with no fee, away then home: what our number thinks the moneyline should be, to read next to DraftKings'.
Where we disagree most
Every game with a DraftKings line and a number from us: 13 of the 13 on the slate.
| Game | Our lean | Market | Ours | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia at Washington | Philadelphia +6 | Washington −6 | Philadelphia −0.8 | -6.8 |
| Indianapolis at Jacksonville | Indianapolis +10 | Jacksonville −10 | Jacksonville −6.3 | -3.7 |
| Minnesota at Detroit | Minnesota +3 | Detroit −3 | Minnesota −0.3 | -3.3 |
| Tennessee at Cincinnati | Tennessee +12.5 | Cincinnati −12.5 | Cincinnati −9.3 | -3.2 |
| Arizona at Dallas | Arizona +7 | Dallas −7 | Dallas −4.8 | -2.2 |
| Chicago at Seattle | Chicago +3 | Seattle −3 | Seattle −1 | -2.0 |
| Kansas City at Denver | Denver +1.5 | Kansas City −1.5 | Denver −0.3 | +1.9 |
| Atlanta at Tampa Bay | Tampa Bay −1.5 | Tampa Bay −1.5 | Tampa Bay −3.1 | +1.6 |
Worth watching to see whether the disagreements are systematic. That is a different question from whether any single one of them is right.
What is behind the numbers
Team offense and defense ratings fitted on every NFL game since 1999, with recent games counting more and each new season starting from a discounted version of the last, plus home field and a term for a team starting someone other than its usual quarterback. They are the same team ratings behind our weekly game simulator, before its injury adjustment, and they are rebuilt after each week's games. Rebuilt through 29 October 2026 on 7,384 games; home field 0.9 points. Win chance is the normal CDF of our margin over 13.4 points, the typical size of our past misses.
Graded game by game on every NFL game since 1999, each predicted only from games played before it (7,370 games). Our spread missed the final margin by 10.46 points on average and the closing line by 10.25. On the 4,204 games since 2011, which played no part in choosing the model's settings, ours missed by 10.23 and the closing line by 9.99, and our totals missed by 10.71 against the closing total's 10.44. The closing line was the more accurate number. Taking our side of the closing spread was right in 2,089 of 4,094 of those games (51.0%), short of the roughly 52.4% needed to beat the standard price.
FanDuel prices are not on this board.
Books (consensus) is hidden right now: the newest books snapshot is more than 2 hours old. Our number and Novig are unaffected. It returns on its own when fresh prices land.