← After The Timeout

Every piece here follows the same shape: what I paid, what the situation is, what the people who cover the team are saying, why I took him there instead of at his ADP, and how he fits the build. Once the season started, the pieces also check the pick against real box scores.

Best ball is not about beating ADP. It is about finding value around it. So the exposure numbers are the honest part — if I say I like someone, you can see how many of my teams he is actually on.

• Michael Hawkins Jr., QB West Virginia
  The top-scoring quarterback in our data, with 749 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in every game. I have no shares of him, and my board had him 168th.
  No shares · ADP 103.0 · my board 168th
• Conner Weigman, QB Houston
  Twenty touchdown passes, two interceptions and at least 17 points in every game. He threw five touchdowns against Oklahoma State.
  13% exposure · ADP 23.3 · my board 9th
• DeSean Bishop, RB Tennessee
  Forty-six percent of Tennessee’s carries, 6.0 yards a rush and a touchdown in six of seven games. The quarterback next to him has changed.
  13% exposure · ADP 11.4 · my board 6th
• Malachi Toney, WR Miami
  A third of Miami’s catches and 126 receiving yards a game. I took him fourth overall twice, and the opener is the thing to check.
  13% exposure · ADP 3.2 · my board 4th
• Charlie Becker, WR Indiana
  Thirty-five percent of Indiana’s catches and eight touchdowns, with more yards than all of last year. I have him on one team, 11 picks after ADP.
  6% exposure · ADP 52.9 · my board 80th
• Kamario Taylor, QB Mississippi State
  The top-scoring quarterback in our data, with 14 touchdown passes in four games. Alabama comes to Starkville at noon Saturday, and I have him on one team.
  6% exposure · ADP 19.2 · my board 11th
• Ousmane Kromah, RB Florida State
  A touchdown in every game and 6.2 yards a carry, scoring like the RB14 after going as the 48th back. Virginia’s run defense is next.
  19% exposure · ADP 127.9 · my board 99th
• Byrum Brown, QB Auburn
  Forty percent of Auburn’s carries and a rushing touchdown in three of four games. Saturday he plays at Tennessee, against another quarterback I own.
  25% exposure · ADP 23.8 · my board 24th
• Jamal Roberts, RB Missouri
  Two-thirds of the running back carries while Ahmad Hardy is out. The workload is real; the yards per carry are the question, with Florida up next.
  19% exposure · ADP 67.0 · my board 55th
• Nate Sheppard, RB Duke
  The highest-scoring running back in our data through two weeks, on two of my sixteen teams. The accountability piece.
  13% exposure · ADP 17.2 · my board 29th
• Cam Edwards, RB Michigan State
  ESPN’s season page says zero carries. The box scores say 48 carries, three touchdowns and half of Michigan State’s rushes.
  38% exposure · ADP 123.9 · my board 138th
• Faizon Brandon, QB Tennessee
  My most-drafted quarterback, taken 15 picks after ADP. Seven total touchdowns in two starts, with Kennesaw State next.
  50% exposure · ADP 136.8 · my board 193rd
• Daniel Hill, RB Alabama
  A 16th-round pick with three touchdowns, who took 45% of Alabama’s carries at Kentucky.
  50% exposure · ADP 199.0 · my board 228th
• T.J. Moore, WR Clemson
  A third of Clemson’s catches, and ordinary production so far. The role is there; the offense is not yet.
  31% exposure · ADP 129.6 · my board 169th
• Chris Marshall, WR Arkansas
  Led Arkansas in catches in both games, still no touchdown. The volume is what I drafted.
  31% exposure · ADP 232.1 · my board 53rd
• Ethan Davis, TE Tennessee
  Two touchdowns in two games, then a torn ACL. What a 25% bet on one tight end should teach.
  25% exposure · ADP 237.9 · out for the season
• Jeremiah Hasley, TE Duke
  Duke lost its top five receivers. The tight end who caught 40 balls last year is still there at pick 160.
  31% exposure · ADP 156.4 · my board 57th
• J'Koby Williams, RB Texas Tech
  He is on four of my sixteen teams and my own board has him 240th. The one where I argue with my model.
  25% exposure · ADP 154.6 · my board 240th

Exposure figures come from my own Underdog draft exports: 16 drafts across Best Bowl Mania and The Tailgate, both 12-team, 20 rounds, superflex. Card numbers use Underdog’s final preseason ADP (the September 14 export, identical to September 1) and my September 3 board; each piece says what it was written against. Nothing here is betting advice.