Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Our read · from the ratings, schedule and roster below
Matching #2 rankings on offense and defense distinguish Duke from ATO's other highest-rated teams. ATO's ratings put Duke #1 overall, with a #272 tempo ranking. The projection rests on efficiency at both ends at a slower pace, without the offense-defense imbalance of several nearby peers.
The projected 27-5 record, including 15-3 in the ACC, is most exposed away from home. Duke's win probability at Florida is 54%, close to a coin flip; at Louisville it is 59%. Against Texas Tech at neutral-site Madison Square Garden, Duke's probability is 64%. The lowest probabilities span conference and nonconference play, concentrating the risk on road and neutral floors.
Newcomers lead the rotation projection. International Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje projects for 26.0 minutes and 9.4 points, while transfer John Blackwell projects for 21.4 minutes and a team-leading 13.2 points. Transfer Drew Scharnowski and recruit Cameron Williams also project for more minutes than any returner. Cayden Boozer leads the returners at 15.2 minutes and 5.8 points.
What would change our readJoaquim Boumtje Boumtje falling short of his projected 26.0-minute role would shift the rotation assessment toward greater dependence on returners.
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 27.1
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 6:30 PM ET | Army #349 | Home | −36.3 | >99% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, 8:00 PM ET | Coastal Carolina #266 | Home | −29.5 | >99% |
| 3 | Tue Nov 10, 7:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 | Neutral at United Center State Farm Champions Classic | −5.5 | 69% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM ET | SIU Edwardsville #255 | Home | −28.5 | >99% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Home | −5.2 | 68% |
| 6 | Sat Nov 21, 11:00 PM ET | Washington State #165 | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | −23.8 | 98% |
| 7 | Wed Nov 25, 7:00 PM ET | UConn #13 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena | −5.8 | 70% |
| 8 | Tue Dec 1, 9:30 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Away ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | −1.0 | 54% |
| 9 | Fri Dec 4, 7:00 PM ET | Harvard #178 | Home | −24.7 | 99% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, 9:00 PM ET | Georgia #40 | Neutral at Madison Square Garden Jimmy V Classic | −11.7 | 86% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 15, 7:00 PM ET | Campbell #163 | Home | −25.9 | 99% |
| 12 | Thu Dec 17, 8:00 PM ET | Grambling #326 | Home | −33.8 | >99% |
| 13 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Madison Square Garden | −3.8 | 64% |
| 14 | Wed Dec 30, 7:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −18.5 | 95% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 2, 2:15 PM ET | California #94 | Home · conference | −20.1 | 97% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 5, 7:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Away · conference | −11.6 | 85% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, time TBA | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −18.1 | 95% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 13, 9:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Home · conference | −17.9 | 95% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 7:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −17.3 | 94% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 20, 9:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Away · conference | −13.9 | 90% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 2:15 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Home · conference | −17.5 | 94% |
| 22 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Clemson #19 | Away · conference | −5.3 | 69% |
| 23 | Mon Feb 1, 7:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Home · conference | −10.2 | 82% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | Virginia #22 | Away · conference | −5.8 | 70% |
| 25 | Tue Feb 9, 9:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Away · conference | −11.2 | 84% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 13, 5:30 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Home · conference | −12.3 | 87% |
| 27 | Tue Feb 16, 7:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Home · conference | −19.4 | 96% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 20, 8:00 PM ET | Gonzaga #10 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Little Caesars Arena | −4.9 | 67% |
| 29 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −2.5 | 59% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 12:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Home · conference | −11.3 | 85% |
| 31 | Mon Mar 1, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 | Home · conference | −9.7 | 81% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | North Carolina #33 | Away · conference | −8.2 | 77% |
Spread is from Duke's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| # | Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje | C | 7-2 | FR | International | #4 | · | · | · | · | 26.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| 13 | John Blackwell | SG | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | #220 | 19.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 33.8 | 21.4 | 13.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 8 | Drew Scharnowski | PF | 6-10 | JR | Transfer | · | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 21.8 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 14 | Cameron Williams | PF | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #5 | · | · | · | · | 15.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | Cayden Boozer | PG | 6-4 | SO | Returning | #18 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 22.8 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| 21 | Patrick Ngongba II | C | 6-11 | JR | Returning | #25 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 21.9 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| 7 | Dame Sarr | SF | 6-8 | SO | Returning | #149 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 23.5 | 14.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | Caleb Foster | PG | 6-5 | SR | Returning | #20 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 24.8 | 14.2 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| 26 | Jacob Theodosiou | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 23.3 | 13.9 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Bryson Howard | SG | 6-4 | FR | Recruit | #28 | · | · | · | · | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 3 | Deron Rippey Jr. | PG | 6-3 | FR | Recruit | #16 | · | · | · | · | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 15 | Maxime Meyer | C | 7-1 | FR | Recruit | #123 | · | · | · | · | 8.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 50 | Brock Davis | SG | 6-5 | SR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 55 | Nick Arnold | PG | 5-11 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 5 | Sebastian Wilkins | SF | 6-8 | RS FR | Returning | #60 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.