Pac-12 Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Our read · from the ratings, schedule and roster below
ATO rates Gonzaga #10 overall despite a #27 offense, lower than every team ahead of it. The #7 defense supplies the stronger side of the projection, while a tempo ranked #113 puts Gonzaga closer to the middle of the pace rankings. The ratings lean on limiting points more than on matching the offenses ranked above Gonzaga.
The projected 24-5 record, including 14-2 in the Pac-12, faces its greatest uncertainty at neutral sites. ATO gives Gonzaga a 33% win probability against Duke at Little Caesars Arena, 53% against Michigan State at Acrisure Arena and 61% against Purdue at T-Mobile Arena. Michigan State is close to a coin flip; Duke is the clearest projected loss.
Transfers lead ATO's rotation projection: Javon Bennett projects for 21.3 minutes and 10.0 points, followed by Xaivian Lee at 19.4 minutes and 9.0 points. Transfer Massamba Diop also projects ahead of returner Braden Huff in minutes, 19.1 to 13.9, leaving substantial responsibility with newcomers.
What would change our readThe defense falling outside the top 10 would remove the strongest support for Gonzaga's overall placement.
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
29 games · 16 in conference · expected wins 24.5
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 7:30 PM ET | Purdue #21 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Hall of Fame Series - Las Vegas | −3.0 | 61% |
| 2 | Sat Nov 7, time TBA | New Mexico State #194 | Home | −22.4 | 98% |
| 3 | Sat Nov 14, time TBA | LSU #53 | Home Bad Boy Mowers Series | −10.8 | 84% |
| 4 | Tue Nov 17, time TBA | Montana State #128 | Home | −18.9 | 96% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 25, 12:30 AM ET | Kansas State #101 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | −15.3 | 92% |
| 6 | Wed Dec 2, time TBA | Eastern Oregon non-D-I | Home | −49.9 | >99% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 11:30 PM ET | UCLA #45 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Honda Center | −6.9 | 73% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 9, time TBA | Incarnate Word #223 | Home | −23.6 | 98% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 12, 10:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Away | −7.6 | 76% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 19, 2:00 PM ET | Michigan State #12 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Acrisure Arena Acrisure Series | −0.8 | 53% |
| 11 | Thu Dec 31, time TBA | Cornell #171 | Home | −22.8 | 98% |
| 12 | Wed Jan 6, time TBA | Washington State #165 | Away · conference | −17.5 | 94% |
| 13 | Sat Jan 9, time TBA | Colorado State #85 | Home · conference | −14.0 | 90% |
| 14 | Wed Jan 13, time TBA | Fresno State #137 | Away · conference | −15.9 | 93% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 16, time TBA | Boise State #91 | Home · conference | −15.0 | 91% |
| 16 | Thu Jan 21, time TBA | Utah State #35 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −3.6 | 63% |
| 17 | Sun Jan 24, time TBA | Oregon State #117 | Away · conference | −13.5 | 89% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 27, time TBA | Fresno State #137 | Home · conference | −20.0 | 97% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 30, time TBA | Oregon #75 | Neutral at Climate Pledge Arena | −11.3 | 85% |
| 20 | Thu Feb 4, time TBA | Texas State #154 | Home · conference | −20.7 | 97% |
| 21 | Sat Feb 6, time TBA | San Diego State #63 | Away · conference | −7.7 | 76% |
| 22 | Wed Feb 10, time TBA | Boise State #91 | Away · conference | −10.9 | 84% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 13, time TBA | Utah State #35 | Home · conference | −7.7 | 76% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 17, time TBA | Washington State #165 | Home · conference | −21.7 | 98% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 20, 8:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Little Caesars Arena | +4.9 | 33% |
| 26 | Thu Feb 25, time TBA | Texas State #154 | Away · conference | −16.6 | 93% |
| 27 | Sat Feb 27, time TBA | San Diego State #63 | Home · conference | −11.9 | 86% |
| 28 | Wed Mar 3, time TBA | Oregon State #117 | Home · conference | −17.5 | 94% |
| 29 | Sat Mar 6, time TBA | Colorado State #85 | Away · conference | −10.0 | 82% |
Spread is from Gonzaga's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| # | Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Javon Bennett | PG | 5-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 15.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 34.5 | 21.3 | 10.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| 5 | Xaivian Lee | PG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 11.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 27.4 | 19.4 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| 35 | Massamba Diop | C | 7-1 | SO | Transfer | · | 13.6 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 29.6 | 19.1 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 0.8 |
| 9 | Chauncey Wiggins | PF | 6-11 | SR | Transfer | #216 | 13.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 27.8 | 19.0 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 34 | Braden Huff | PF | 6-10 | SR | Returning | #166 | 17.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 25.4 | 13.9 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| 4 | Davis Fogle | SG | 6-7 | SO | Returning | #37 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 16.7 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | Isiah Harwell | SG | 6-6 | SO | Transfer | #13 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 0 | Luca Foster | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #59 | · | · | · | · | 9.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 33 | Sam Funches | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #109 | · | · | · | · | 8.5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| 14 | Alonzo Metz | PG | 5-11 | SO | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 30 | Carter Nilson | SF | 6-5 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 13 | Izan Almansa | PF | 6-10 | JR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 3 | Juwan Ekanga | PG | 6-6 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 7 | Nathan De Sousa | PG | 6-3 | SR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 32 | Parker Jefferson | PF | 6-9 | SO | Returning | #149 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.