Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Our read · from the ratings, schedule and roster below
Transfers lead Louisville's projected rotation in minutes, making newcomer production central to ATO's #9 overall rating. ATO ranks the offense #7 and the defense #16, with tempo at #71. The scoring projection provides the stronger side of the profile, while the defensive ranking supports a team less dependent on offense alone.
Neutral courts account for much of the toughest opposition in ATO's projected 22-7 season and 14-4 ACC record. Louisville's win probability against Michigan at Little Caesars Arena is 36%; against Texas Tech at Michelob ULTRA Arena, it is 48%, close to a coin flip. The conference exception is Duke at home, where ATO gives Louisville a 41% chance.
Transfer production matters most at the top of the minutes projection. ATO projects Flory Bidunga for 22.9 minutes and 11.0 points, with DeShayne Montgomery at 21.1 minutes and 9.4 points. Returner Adrian Wooley projects for 16.8 minutes and 7.3 points, leaving continuity in a smaller role than the leading transfers.
What would change our readIf Bidunga does not lead the rotation in minutes, ATO's projected allocation of its largest role to a newcomer would need reassessment.
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
29 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 22.4
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 9:00 PM ET | Chattanooga #265 | Home | −26.1 | 99% |
| 2 | Sat Nov 7, time TBA | Morehead State #279 | Home | −26.5 | 99% |
| 3 | Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET | Memphis #89 | Away | −12.0 | 86% |
| 4 | Thu Nov 19, 8:00 PM ET | Stetson #322 | Home | −29.8 | >99% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 24, 8:00 PM ET | Texas Tech #8 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Sixteen | +0.6 | 48% |
| 6 | Tue Dec 1, 9:00 PM ET | Texas #20 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | −5.4 | 69% |
| 7 | Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Little Caesars Arena | +3.9 | 36% |
| 8 | Sat Dec 12, 4:00 PM ET | Kentucky #26 Top 5 hardest | Away | −1.8 | 57% |
| 9 | Wed Dec 16, 9:00 PM ET | Long Island University #316 | Home | −29.8 | >99% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 19, 1:30 PM ET | Eastern Michigan #180 | Home | −22.4 | 98% |
| 11 | Wed Dec 30, 8:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Away · conference | −7.2 | 74% |
| 12 | Sat Jan 2, 6:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Home · conference | −14.1 | 90% |
| 13 | Tue Jan 5, 9:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Home · conference | −8.1 | 77% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 9, 2:15 PM ET | SMU #50 | Away · conference | −6.9 | 74% |
| 15 | Wed Jan 13, 7:00 PM ET | California #94 | Home · conference | −16.3 | 93% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Away · conference | −7.4 | 75% |
| 17 | Tue Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET | Miami #24 | Home · conference | −6.0 | 71% |
| 18 | Sat Jan 23, time TBA | Baylor #43 | Neutral at Gainbridge Fieldhouse | −7.4 | 75% |
| 19 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −13.6 | 89% |
| 20 | Sat Jan 30, 12:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −14.4 | 91% |
| 21 | Tue Feb 2, 9:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −14.5 | 91% |
| 22 | Sat Feb 6, 3:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Home · conference | −14.1 | 90% |
| 23 | Mon Feb 8, 6:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Away · conference | −3.9 | 64% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 12:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | −11.2 | 85% |
| 25 | Mon Feb 15, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −1.5 | 55% |
| 26 | Sun Feb 21, 4:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Away · conference | −11.1 | 84% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Home · conference | +2.5 | 41% |
| 28 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Away · conference | −2.8 | 60% |
| 29 | Sat Mar 6, 12:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Home · conference | −5.1 | 68% |
Spread is from Louisville's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
13 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| # | Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | Flory Bidunga | C | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | #17 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 31.5 | 22.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 1.2 |
| 11 | DeShayne Montgomery | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.4 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 30.6 | 21.1 | 9.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 5 | Seth Trimble | SG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | #42 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 32.5 | 20.1 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| 7 | Alvaro Folgueiras | PF | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | · | 8.4 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 20.7 | 17.4 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 |
| 14 | Adrian Wooley | SG | 6-4 | JR | Returning | · | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 22.4 | 16.8 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 15 | Obinna Ekezie Jr. | C | 7-2 | FR | Recruit | #18 | · | · | · | · | 14.2 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | Jackson Shelstad | PG | 6-1 | SR | Transfer | #27 | 15.6 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 34.8 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | Karter Knox | SF | 6-6 | JR | Transfer | #22 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 22.2 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 45 | Gabe Dynes | C | 7-5 | SR | Transfer | · | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
| 22 | Isaac Ellis | PG | 6-1 | FR | Recruit | #268 | · | · | · | · | 9.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 33 | Will Hanke | SG | 6-4 | SO | Walk-on | · | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 53 | LJ Wells | PF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | · | 15.0 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 30.3 | · | · | · | · |
| · | Boyuong Zhang | SF | 6-9 | FR | Recruit | #54 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.