Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Our read · from the ratings, schedule and roster below
An almost even offense-defense split distinguishes Miami among ATO's top 25, where several peers lean heavily toward one end. ATO's ratings place Miami #24 overall, with the #26 offense and #25 defense. The #142 tempo suggests the projection depends more on comparable contributions at both ends than on an extreme pace.
The projected 22-8 record, including 12-6 in the ACC, faces its greatest risk away from home. ATO gives Miami an 18% win probability at Duke and 29% at Louisville, making those conference road games the clearest projected losses. Miami's 31% probability against Florida at a neutral site extends that exposure beyond ACC travel.
Transfers account for the largest projected minutes roles: Brent Bland projects for 19.8 minutes and 7.8 points, DeSean Goode for 18.0 and 7.9, and Acaden Lewis for 17.9 and 7.8. Returner Shelton Henderson supplies a scoring counterweight at 17.6 minutes and 8.2 points, but the rotation projection depends heavily on newcomers sustaining those roles.
What would change our readThe balance assumes a top 25 defense; a finish outside that range would shift the assessment toward an offense whose #26 rating offers less support on its own.
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 21.8
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 6:00 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Benchmark International Arena Orion180 Tipoff Classic | +5.4 | 31% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM ET | Wagner #331 | Home | −26.7 | 99% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM ET | North Florida #335 | Home | −28.5 | >99% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 5:00 PM ET | North Alabama #330 | Home | −26.3 | 99% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, time TBA | Rider #354 | Home | −29.7 | >99% |
| 6 | Fri Nov 20, 5:00 PM ET | Manhattan #285 | Home | −23.4 | 98% |
| 7 | Tue Nov 24, 3:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena Players Era Sixteen | −3.2 | 61% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 2, 9:15 PM ET | Alabama #23 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | −2.0 | 57% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET | Stetson #322 | Home | −25.6 | 99% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 12, 5:30 PM ET | Texas #20 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Toyota Center (Houston) Houston Hoopfest | +0.5 | 48% |
| 11 | Wed Dec 16, time TBA | Alcorn State #352 | Home | −29.4 | >99% |
| 12 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | South Carolina Upstate #262 | Home | −22.1 | 98% |
| 13 | Tue Dec 29, 8:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Home · conference | −3.1 | 61% |
| 14 | Sat Jan 2, 2:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Away · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 15 | Tue Jan 5, 7:00 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −10.3 | 82% |
| 16 | Sat Jan 9, 3:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Home · conference | −7.6 | 76% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 6:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 | Home · conference | −1.8 | 56% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 19, 7:00 PM ET | Louisville #9 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +6.0 | 29% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 6:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Away · conference | −3.3 | 62% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 27, 7:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 | Home · conference | −1.4 | 55% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, 12:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Home · conference | −10.0 | 82% |
| 22 | Mon Feb 1, 7:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +10.2 | 18% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 6, 2:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Home · conference | −11.3 | 85% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 10, 9:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Away · conference | −6.0 | 71% |
| 25 | Sat Feb 13, 10:00 PM ET | California #94 | Away · conference | −8.0 | 77% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 4:30 PM ET | Notre Dame #74 | Home · conference | −9.8 | 81% |
| 27 | Mon Feb 22, 7:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | −0.0 | 50% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, time TBA | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −10.6 | 83% |
| 29 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | −7.2 | 74% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 2:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Away · conference | −7.0 | 74% |
Spread is from Miami's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| # | Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent Bland | SG | 6-3 | SR | Transfer | · | 13.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 33.2 | 19.8 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 0 | DeSean Goode | PF | 6-8 | JR | Transfer | · | 15.2 | 8.7 | 1.4 | 30.9 | 18.0 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 0.8 |
| 55 | Acaden Lewis | PG | 6-2 | SO | Transfer | #35 | 12.2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 30.5 | 17.9 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 3.1 |
| 7 | Shelton Henderson | SF | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #19 | 13.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 31.2 | 17.6 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 3 | Nick Dorn | SG | 6-7 | SR | Transfer | · | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 23.2 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 6 | Robert Miller III | PF | 6-10 | JR | Transfer | #65 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 19.3 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 35 | Dante Allen | SG | 6-4 | SO | Returning | #55 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 23.9 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 11 | Caleb Gaskins | SF | 6-8 | FR | Recruit | #13 | · | · | · | · | 11.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| · | LJ Cason | PG | 6-2 | JR | Transfer | #247 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 18.6 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Quin Berger | PG | 6-2 | SR | Transfer | · | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 16.6 | 9.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10 | Egor Ryzhov | C | 6-11 | SR | International | · | · | · | · | · | 7.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | Marcus Allen | SF | 6-7 | JR | Returning | #73 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 18.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5 | Malik Reneau | PF | 6-9 | SR | Returning | #25 | 18.9 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 29.0 | · | · | · | · |
| 2 | Somto Cyril | C | 6-11 | JR | Transfer | #45 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 21.2 | · | · | · | · |
| 8 | Christopher Birden Jr. | PF | 6-10 | FR | Recruit | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.