Atlantic Coast Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason ratings, 1 game played since
Game 1 · Sun Nov 1 · Final in Rome
Notre Dame won its opener 74-72 over Villanova in Rome, with turnovers, offensive rebounds and free throws deciding a game in which it shot 35% to Villanova's 46%. Notre Dame committed 11 turnovers to Villanova's 20 and scored 20 points off turnovers to Villanova's 10. It also collected 17 offensive rebounds to Villanova's 10 and made 19 of 25 free throws, compared with Villanova's 13 of 18.
Brady Koehler and Braeden Smith led Notre Dame with 16 points each. Koehler shot 6-for-13 and added 8 rebounds, including 4 offensive, plus 2 blocks. Smith shot 2-for-9 from the field but made 10 of 11 free throws and recorded 4 steals. Braeden Shrewsberry added 15 points and 6 rebounds, shooting 3-for-8 from 3-point range. According to the Associated Press, Koehler's late baskets fueled the comeback: his dunk cut the deficit to one with 1:36 left, and Logan Duncomb's 3-pointer with 1:08 remaining gave Notre Dame a 70-68 lead.
The result beat ATO's pregame projection, which missed the winner. ATO's ratings gave Notre Dame a 27% win probability and a fair spread of Notre Dame +6.8; the margin missed by 8.8 points. The projected total of 145.4 was close to the actual 146. The win is evidence against the gap between Notre Dame's #74 rating and Villanova's #28 rating, but one game does not establish where Notre Dame belongs among 364 teams.
NextNotre Dame hosts Mercyhurst on Thursday.
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
30 games · 18 in conference · expected wins 15.7
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sun Nov 1, 9:30 AM ET | Villanova #28 | Neutral at Palazzo dello Sport Eternal City Tip-Off | +6.8 | 27% |
| 2 | Thu Nov 5, time TBA | Mercyhurst #294 | Home | −14.8 | 91% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, time TBA | Eastern Illinois #306 | Home | −16.0 | 93% |
| 4 | Wed Nov 11, time TBA | South Carolina State #358 | Home | −22.9 | 98% |
| 5 | Tue Nov 17, 4:30 PM ET | Florida #4 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at Michelob ULTRA Arena Players Era Eight | +13.3 | 11% |
| 6 | Tue Nov 24, time TBA | Central Michigan #290 | Home | −15.2 | 92% |
| 7 | Sat Nov 28, time TBA | Stonehill #334 | Home | −18.7 | 96% |
| 8 | Wed Dec 2, 7:15 PM ET | Vanderbilt #18 | Home ACC/SEC Men's Challenge | +6.4 | 28% |
| 9 | Sat Dec 5, 2:00 PM ET | TCU #42 | Home | +2.6 | 41% |
| 10 | Tue Dec 8, time TBA | Long Island University #316 | Home | −17.2 | 94% |
| 11 | Sat Dec 12, 2:30 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home | +4.4 | 34% |
| 12 | Mon Dec 21, time TBA | Le Moyne #311 | Home | −17.1 | 94% |
| 13 | Wed Dec 30, 2:00 PM ET | Stanford #76 | Home · conference | −2.2 | 58% |
| 14 | Wed Jan 6, 7:00 PM ET | Virginia Tech #52 | Home · conference | +0.4 | 48% |
| 15 | Sat Jan 9, 12:30 PM ET | Georgia Tech #112 | Away · conference | −2.0 | 57% |
| 16 | Tue Jan 12, 7:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Away · conference | +2.1 | 42% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 16, 2:00 PM ET | California #94 | Home · conference | −4.1 | 65% |
| 18 | Wed Jan 20, 7:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh #83 | Home · conference | −3.0 | 61% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 23, 2:15 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +17.5 | 6% |
| 20 | Tue Jan 26, 7:00 PM ET | Florida State #82 | Away · conference | +1.1 | 46% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 30, 12:30 PM ET | SMU #50 | Home · conference | +0.9 | 47% |
| 22 | Tue Feb 2, 7:00 PM ET | North Carolina #33 | Home · conference | +3.7 | 37% |
| 23 | Sat Feb 6, 5:30 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Away · conference | −1.8 | 56% |
| 24 | Sat Feb 13, 2:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.8 | 19% |
| 25 | Wed Feb 17, 9:00 PM ET | Wake Forest #72 | Home · conference | −2.0 | 57% |
| 26 | Sat Feb 20, 4:30 PM ET | Miami #24 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.8 | 19% |
| 27 | Wed Feb 24, 7:00 PM ET | NC State #29 | Away · conference | +8.9 | 21% |
| 28 | Sat Feb 27, 8:00 PM ET | Syracuse #56 | Home · conference | +0.3 | 49% |
| 29 | Tue Mar 2, 7:00 PM ET | Clemson #19 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +9.8 | 19% |
| 30 | Sat Mar 6, 2:00 PM ET | Boston College #111 | Home · conference | −5.7 | 70% |
Spread is from Notre Dame's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
16 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| # | Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | Logan Duncomb | C | 6-10 | SR | Transfer | #77 | 18.3 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 23.8 | 15.2 | 8.0 | 1.4 |
| 11 | Braeden Shrewsberry | SG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | #229 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 32.7 | 23.4 | 9.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 23 | Ethan Roberts | SF | 6-5 | SR | Transfer | · | 16.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 30.5 | 20.1 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 5 | Devin Brown | SG | 6-6 | SO | Transfer | · | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 23.4 | 18.4 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 3 | Braeden Smith | PG | 6-0 | SR | Transfer | · | 5.1 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 17.1 | 16.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| 2 | Logan Imes | PG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | #212 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 21.1 | 16.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 6 | Brady Koehler | PF | 6-10 | SO | Returning | #77 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 16.0 | 14.9 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| · | Bryce Dortch | PF | 6-9 | JR | Transfer | #190 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 10 | Jonathan Sanderson | PG | 6-3 | FR | Recruit | #82 | · | · | · | · | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 44 | Gan-Erdene Solongo | C | 7-0 | FR | Recruit | #165 | · | · | · | · | 10.4 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 0 | Brady Stevens | SG | 6-4 | JR | Walk-on | · | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 8 | Jake Burow | SG | 6-3 | FR | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 22 | Luke Devine | SF | 6-7 | SO | Walk-on | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 12 | Nick Shrewsberry | SG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #389 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 15 | Tommy Ahneman | C | 6-10 | SO | Returning | #150 | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| 7 | Yoro Diallo | PF | 6-9 | SR | Transfer | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.