Big East Conference · men's CBB 2026-27 preview
Ratings as of 2026-10-07 · preseason, no 2026-27 games played
Our read · from the ratings, schedule and roster below
A #318 tempo places UConn toward the slow end of ATO's ranked contenders. ATO's ratings put it #13 overall, with the #13 defense ahead of the #33 offense. The projection favors winning through stops at a slow pace, with less support from offensive efficiency.
The hardest projected games sit outside Big East play, away from home. ATO projects 23-9 overall and 15-5 in conference, with UConn's win probabilities at 30% against Duke at T-Mobile Arena, 32% against Michigan at TD Garden and 34% at Arizona. Those games concentrate the risk at neutral sites and on the road.
The rotation projection places a transfer ahead of the returning core, but distributes the scoring. Nils Machowski projects for 20.5 minutes and 9.1 points; returners Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball project for 18.9 minutes and 7.7 points, and 17.9 minutes and 9.1 points, respectively. Transfers Jaye Nash and Najai Hines add projected roles of 15.7 and 15.2 minutes, making newcomer contributions central to the rotation.
What would change our readIf UConn's defense ranks behind its projected #33 offense, the defensive basis for its #13 overall rating needs revisiting.
Rating line · rank among 364
Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions against an average D-I opponent. Net rating is the gap between them.
32 games · 20 in conference · expected wins 22.9
Each game gets a spread and a win probability from the ratings. Expected wins is the sum of those probabilities, rounded for the record.
| # | Date (ET) | Opponent | Site | Spread | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon Nov 2, 9:00 PM ET | Gardner-Webb #362 | Home | −33.4 | >99% |
| 2 | Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET | Michigan #2 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at TD Garden Hall of Fame Series - Boston | +5.2 | 32% |
| 3 | Mon Nov 9, 7:00 PM ET | Wagner #331 | Home | −27.6 | 99% |
| 4 | Fri Nov 13, 7:30 PM ET | Ohio State #30 | Home | −5.2 | 68% |
| 5 | Wed Nov 18, 9:00 PM ET | Arizona #6 Top 5 hardest | Away | +4.4 | 34% |
| 6 | Wed Nov 25, 7:00 PM ET | Duke #1 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at T-Mobile Arena | +5.8 | 30% |
| 7 | Mon Nov 30, 6:30 PM ET | Rider #354 | Home | −30.6 | >99% |
| 8 | Fri Dec 4, 7:00 PM ET | Illinois #5 Top 5 hardest | Neutral at United Center Bad Boy Mowers Series | +2.5 | 41% |
| 9 | Tue Dec 8, 7:00 PM ET | Mississippi Valley State #360 | Home | −32.5 | >99% |
| 10 | Sat Dec 12, 8:00 PM ET | Kansas #14 | Home | −2.1 | 58% |
| 11 | Tue Dec 15, 7:00 PM ET | Delaware State #363 | Home | −32.5 | >99% |
| 12 | Sun Dec 20, 3:00 PM ET | Virginia #22 | Neutral at Madison Square Garden | −1.9 | 57% |
| 13 | Wed Dec 23, 3:00 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Home · conference | −10.2 | 82% |
| 14 | Thu Dec 31, 7:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Away · conference | −8.6 | 78% |
| 15 | Sun Jan 3, 2:00 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Away · conference | −6.1 | 71% |
| 16 | Wed Jan 6, 6:30 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Home · conference | −11.9 | 86% |
| 17 | Sat Jan 9, 7:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Away · conference | −5.3 | 69% |
| 18 | Tue Jan 12, 7:00 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Home · conference | −10.8 | 84% |
| 19 | Sat Jan 16, 12:00 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Home · conference | −11.4 | 85% |
| 20 | Wed Jan 20, 7:00 PM ET | Providence #46 | Away · conference | −4.5 | 66% |
| 21 | Sat Jan 23, 12:00 PM ET | Butler #80 | Home · conference | −12.6 | 87% |
| 22 | Tue Jan 26, 8:00 PM ET | Georgetown #66 | Away · conference | −6.3 | 72% |
| 23 | Fri Jan 29, 8:00 PM ET | St. John's #17 Top 5 hardest | Away · conference | +1.2 | 46% |
| 24 | Wed Feb 3, 7:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 | Home · conference | −4.7 | 67% |
| 25 | Sun Feb 7, 4:30 PM ET | Creighton #62 | Home · conference | −10.1 | 82% |
| 26 | Wed Feb 10, 8:30 PM ET | DePaul #78 | Away · conference | −8.0 | 77% |
| 27 | Sun Feb 14, 12:00 PM ET | Villanova #28 | Away · conference | −0.9 | 53% |
| 28 | Wed Feb 17, 8:00 PM ET | Seton Hall #58 | Home · conference | −9.2 | 80% |
| 29 | Sat Feb 20, 2:30 PM ET | Marquette #68 | Away · conference | −6.7 | 73% |
| 30 | Sat Feb 27, 8:00 PM ET | Providence #46 | Home · conference | −8.6 | 78% |
| 31 | Tue Mar 2, 7:30 PM ET | St. John's #17 | Home · conference | −2.9 | 60% |
| 32 | Sat Mar 6, 2:30 PM ET | Xavier #71 | Away · conference | −7.3 | 75% |
Spread is from UConn's side: a minus sign means favored. Opponent numbers are ATO model ranks out of 364. Neutral sites carry no home edge.
15 players · sorted by projected minutes
Last season is each player's own line from the roster sheet. The projection columns are the 2026-27 per-game line from the best ball projection.
Swipe the table sideways; the player column stays put.
| # | Player | Pos | Ht | Class | Type | Rivals | PPG | RPG | APG | MPG | Proj MPG | Proj PTS | Proj REB | Proj AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nils Machowski | SG | 6-4 | SR | Transfer | · | 17.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 33.7 | 20.5 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 5 | Silas Demary Jr. | PG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | #76 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 28.4 | 18.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 4.0 |
| 1 | Solo Ball | SG | 6-4 | SR | Returning | #47 | 12.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 28.4 | 17.9 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 24 | Braylon Mullins | SG | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #15 | 12.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 28.2 | 16.3 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 7 | Jaye Nash | PG | 6-2 | JR | Transfer | #151 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 25.6 | 15.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 2.1 |
| 9 | Najai Hines | C | 6-11 | SO | Transfer | #131 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 0.6 | 18.0 | 15.2 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 0.6 |
| 33 | Isaiah Shaw | SF | 6-8 | SR | Transfer | · | 8.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 8.3 | 14.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 18 | Oskar Giltay | C | 6-11 | SO | Transfer | · | 3.3 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 14.6 | 12.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| 23 | Jayden Ross | SF | 6-7 | SR | Returning | #77 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 17.4 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 13 | Jacob Ross | SF | 6-6 | SO | Returning | #147 | · | · | · | · | 12.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 3 | Colben Landrew | SF | 6-6 | FR | Recruit | #30 | · | · | · | · | 11.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| 0 | Junior County | PG | 6-5 | FR | Recruit | #47 | · | · | · | · | 11.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 29 | Elmir Dzafic | C | 7-0 | SO | Transfer | · | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 4 | Nik Khamenia | SF | 6-8 | SO | Transfer | #16 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 19.8 | · | · | · | · |
| 17 | Egor Amosov | SF | 6-8 | FR | International | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
PPG, RPG, APG, MPG are last season. Rivals is the recruit rank where the sheet has one. A dot means no figure.
Method · updated 2026-10-07
Ratings are net points per 100 possessions against an average D-I team, built from game results and roster information. Before games are played, the starting point is a season-ahead forecast from the roster sheet. Once the season starts, results take over.
Spreads are expected scores from each team's offense, defense and tempo, with a home edge of 2.04 points and none at neutral sites. Win probability uses a normal spread of 11 points. These are estimates of what is likely, not statements about what will happen.
Minutes and per-game lines come from a best ball projection built on last season's play, transfer and recruit information. Last-season lines and recruit ranks are facts from the roster sheet.
Every game prediction is logged before tip-off and compared with the final score. We publish where the model is close and where it misses, and we change it only when the results say to.