NFL · Week 8

This week's slate: our number and the market's.

Every game this week, Thursday night through Monday night, with the market's spread, total and moneyline from Novig and the big US sportsbooks, the points each side is expected to score, and what our team ratings say.

Two kinds of number here, and the page keeps them apart. The market's: DraftKings' spread and total, Novig's prices, and implied points, where the favourite's share is (total + spread) ÷ 2. The tinted row is ours: a predicted margin from the same team ratings behind our weekly simulator, fitted on 7,384 games back to 1999. Our number and Novig's prices show only for games that have not kicked off. Graded on the 4,204 games from 2011-2026, our spread missed the final margin by 10.2 points on average and the closing line by 10.0. The closing line was the more accurate number.

Thursday, Oct 29

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers 8:15 PM ET final: CAR 19, GB 27

Sunday, Nov 1

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM ET final: BAL 10, BUF 36

Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 PM ET final: TEN 36, CIN 43

Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys 1:00 PM ET final: ARI 33, DAL 30

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions 1:00 PM ET final: MIN 15, DET 19

Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets 1:00 PM ET final: LV 38, NYJ 33

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM ET final: CLE 6, PIT 27

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM ET final: ATL 0, TB 16

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00 PM ET final: IND 7, JAX 42

Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams 4:05 PM ET final: LAC 9, LAR 24

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos 4:25 PM ET final: KC 24, DEN 28

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 4:25 PM ET final: NE 24, MIA 19

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders 8:20 PM ET final: PHI 10, WSH 27

Monday, Nov 2

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks 8:15 PM ET DraftKings SEA −3 · O/U 46.5

Our number SEA by 1.0 53% to win -2.0 vs the line

Novig

SpreadSEA −3.5SEA 47c · CHI +3.5 53.5c

Total52.5Over 32c · Under 69c

MoneylineSEA 62cCHI 38.5c · SEA 62c

24.8SEA implied points

21.8opponent implied points

Where our number disagrees with the line, do not read it as an edge. The closing line has been the more accurate number over a long sample, and a disagreement shows how our rating sees a matchup, not that the price is wrong. The full grading is on the NFL lines board. Our margin is the home side's, and a positive gap means we like the home team more than the line does.

Novig rows show that exchange's spread, total and moneyline for each game that has not started, refreshed hourly. If Novig has no price for a game, the row says so. A Novig price is what backing a side costs right now per $1 it pays, so 52c is a 52% implied chance before Novig’s margin. The two sides of a market add to a little over 100c. The spread and total shown are the rungs closest to the DraftKings line. Prices from Novig.

Books (consensus) is hidden right now: the newest books snapshot is more than 2 hours old. Our number and Novig are unaffected. The column returns on its own when fresh prices land.

DraftKings spreads and totals and the schedule come from ESPN. Prices move; this page is a snapshot from Nov 2, 5:02 AM ET, not a live feed.

Estimates, not guarantees. Every number here is a model output or a market price, and none of it predicts a result. You must be 21 or older to bet where sports betting is legal. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.